If this portrayal of the Bush administration’s approach is accurate, then I’d think TPA renewal is unlikely:

“I don’t think the urgency [of Lamy, Mandelson, and analysts] is well-placed. The content is going to drive the pace of this negotiation,” the U.S. official, asking to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the Doha talks, told Reuters…

U.S. officials argue that the round will not drift into oblivion if a Doha deal remains elusive through 2007 or beyond, and more importantly today’s multilateral trading system will not unravel, no matter what the critics warn.