Congressional populists and think tank economists alike want the administration to push China to revalue the renminbi. Clive Crook dissents:
So much is wrong with this approach that it is hard to know where to start. To begin with, an aggressive posture is unlikely to force China to change. The best argument for a moderate appreciation of the renminbi is that it would serve China’s interests. If China’s leaders are not persuaded of that, intemperate foreign demands are unlikely to change their minds.
Put that aside, though, and suppose that China did capitulate and let the renminbi appreciate briskly. What would that do to America’s current account deficit? The answer is: not much…
[A] meaningful improvement in the US current account deficit will require higher private saving and a smaller budget deficit at home – variables that, unlike China’s currency policy, are under the control of the US Congress. Why then give so much greater emphasis to what China needs to do? Perhaps the China-bashers think that Beijing is more susceptible to US threats than Congress is to elementary economics. Come to think of it, that might be a close call.
Full column in the FT (subscription required).