NBER highlights


“Using trade weighted as opposed to consistently aggregated tariffs overstates real income for India by nearly 1%.” — James Anderson, “Consistent trade policy aggregation

“Trade cooperation is almost surely dependent upon nations’ perceptions of costs and benefits of deviating. Unfortunately, the terms-of-trade approach is focusing on the trees and missing the forest. Its insights as to whether an RTA makes cheating on a tariff more or less attractive misses the point altogether since the main carrots and sticks supporting cooperation have nothing to do with tariffs.” — Richard Baldwin, “Big-think regionalism: A critical survey

“Suppose that over the next nine years all of inshoring and offshore outsourcing grew at rates experienced during 1996-2005… Then workers in occupations that are exposed to inshoring and offshore outsourcing (1) would switch 4-digit occupations 2 percent less often, (2) would spend 0.1 percent less time unemployed, and (3) would earn 1.5 percent more. These are not annual changes – they are changes over nine years – and are thus best described as small positive effects. ” — Runjuan Liu & Daniel Trefler, “Much ado about nothing: Americans jobs and the rise of service outsourcing to China and India