Export-led Growth 2.0

Otaviano Canuto, Mona Haddad, and Gordon Hanson in the World Bank’s Economic Premise write:

How dependent are developing countries’ exports on de- mand in developed countries? This note shows that much of the recent growth in developing countries’ exports was driven by demand in other developing countries. This means that developing countries may continue to rely on South- South trade to recover from the crisis. In fact, countries like China are leading the recovery through strong import demand. Over the medium term, the development of an “export-led growth v2.0,” in which South-South trade plays a more important role, will be essential. Policy makers can support this process by continuing to liberalize South-South trade, focusing in particular on nontariff measures.