Trade diversion in the proposed CIS customs union

Lucio Vinhas de Souza in a World Bank note:

This note provides an initial estimation of some of the economic effects of creating the Eurasian Economic Community (EurAsEC) customs union. Relying on the computable general equilibrium model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), results of the simulations consistently support the conclusion that, as an arrangement, the EurAsEC customs union would be a GDP-reducing framework in which the negative trade-diversion effects surpass positive trade-creation ones.