Johnson-Noguera over four decades


Rob Johnson and Guillermo Noguera describing not-yet-posted research:

[W]e combine time series data on sectoral production and bilateral trade with benchmark input-output tables for the OECD and major emerging markets, covering 80-90% of world trade and GDP. We find rapid and accelerating declines in the domestic content of exports of most countries. Preliminary results suggest that the value added content of trade declined by nearly twice as much in the decade from 1995-2005 than in the prior two decades. These declines are concentrated within manufacturing sectors, and not due to the changing composition of world trade. At the bilateral level, there are large differences in the rate and timing of changes across trading partners. Further, we detect cyclical patterns in the value added content of trade, which tends to rise in recessions due to the compression of demand in sectors that are most vertically specialized.