Author Archives: jdingel

US anti-export tax bias

Cesar Conda and Brian Reardon say America’s tax code is punishing US corporations for producing at home:

In 2005, 137 nations accounting for 94 per cent of trade with the US had some form of border-adjusted taxes on manufactured goods and services. By contrast, the US has direct taxes, such as the corporate income tax, which is precluded from being refunded on US exports or assessed on imports under World Trade Organisation rules.

The net effect is an unfair disadvantage for US companies and their staff, as the goods they produce and export are hit with taxes abroad, while foreign goods coming into the country are not. The additional embedded tax burden for US companies exporting goods is at least $100bn annually.

We must fix the US tax code so that American manufacturers can export more goods and services, not more jobs. The challenges of moving the US corporate income tax toward a border-adjustable system are sizable, but they can be overcome. Two stand out: WTO rules prohibit border adjustments of direct taxes and America’s corporate income tax is not readily border adjustable. These challenges suggest a two-front attack. First, the US must aggressively engage the Europeans to repeal the distinction between direct and indirect taxes… Second, Congress should move our corporate code towards a consumption-based tax…

For free-trade politicians, promoting tax-relief for American-made goods will help stem the growing tide against free trade and globalisation among voters. Without a proactive trade agenda, we are in grave danger of enacting protectionist policies proven in the past to hurt workers and industry alike. On the other hand, promoting a border-adjustable corporate tax allows pro-trade candidates to offer a workable, proactive and populist response to the ongoing decline in US manufacturing jobs.

Tariff evasion

Echoing the Fisman and Wei results for Chinese trade with Hong Kong, Beata Javorcik and Gaia Narciso find that people misclassify products to avoid tariffs. Moreover, it’s easier to do so with differentiated products:

Emerging literature has demonstrated some unique characteristics of trade in differentiated products. This paper contributes to the literature by postulating that differentiated products may be subject to greater tariff evasion due to the difficulties associated with assessing their quality and price. Using product-level data on trade between Germany and 10 Eastern European countries during 1992-2003, the authors find empirical support for this hypothesis. They show that the trade gap, defined as the discrepancy between the value of exports reported by Germany and the value of imports from Germany reported by the importing country, is positively related to the level of tariff in 8 out of 10 countries. Further, the authors show that the responsiveness of the trade gap to the tariff level is greater for differentiated products than for homogeneous goods. A one-percentage-point increase in the tariff rate is associated with a 0.6 percent increase in the trade gap in the case of homogeneous products and a 2.1 percent increase in the case of differentiated products. Finally, the data indicate that greater tariff evasion observed for differentiated products tends to take place through misrepresentation of the import prices.

World Bank working paper 4123.

New PPP estimates for China and India

The acting director of the US Treasury department’s Asia Office says that the world just gained a few hundred million poor people:

In a little-noticed mid-summer announcement, the Asian Development Bank presented official survey results indicating China’s economy is smaller and poorer than established estimates say. The announcement cited the first authoritative measure of China’s size using purchasing power parity methods. The results tell us that when the World Bank announces its expected PPP data revisions later this year, China’s economy will turn out to be 40 per cent smaller than previously stated…

The number of people in China living below the World Bank’s dollar-a-day poverty line is 300m – three times larger than currently estimated… The ADB’s announcement also indicates that the number of dollar-a-day poor in India is closer to 800m than the current estimate of 400m.

Calculating the number of poor people is a difficult task, and disagreements about methodology abound, so I don’t take this FT piece as authoritative, but the issue warrants renewed attention.

I believe this ADB report is the one mentioned, though I cannot find any figures describing the number of people below the poverty line.

Does Chinese FDI policy promote technological spillovers?

Bruce Blonigen & Alyson C. Ma have a very interesting piece up at VoxEU:

The allegation: China extracts rents and technology from foreign competitors, thus allowing it to grow even faster and longer than most would have imagined possible. The evidence: China’s industrial policies have been successful in attracting foreign investment, but not necessarily in increasing the sophistication of its own firms through technology transfer…

First, while China’s range of exported products overlaps more with OECD countries than other less-developed countries, China sells these more-sophisticated products at a very large discount relative to competitors. This suggests that they are breaking into these “sophisticated” categories with relatively low-quality offerings. Interestingly, the Chinese discount in these products relative to OECD countries has been growing over time, not diminishing.

Second, if one looks at firm-level productivity data, foreign-owned firms in China are currently nine times more productive than their Chinese-owned counterparts!…

There are also a few other pieces of evidence from the analysis of Chinese trade data that argue against any effective role for Chinese industrial policy in these areas. First, price/quality gaps do not close at all for sectors targeted by the Chinese government for foreign investment encouragement or for ones where foreign firms are restricted to have a domestic partner. Second, price/quality gaps do not close more in high-technology sectors that are supposedly being targeted by the Chinese government.

Brittan: Are the imbalances on the mend?

The FT‘s Samuel Brittan on whether international imbalances are a problem:

The morals I drew were, first, that the onus of proof was on those who regarded it as a problem, and second, that many of the advocated remedies could be worse than the disease….

Yet such is the perversity of humanity that governments could make the imbalances into a problem where none existed before. If the deficit countries are to reduce their deficits, they have to switch resources from home markets to exports or import saving activities. It would be lovely if this could be done painlessly without impinging on output and activity. But a substantial structural change of this kind does require some sort of domestic slowdown while resources are being switched.

The danger, in a nutshell, is that central banks and governments are so assiduous in promoting domestic growth that they will not tolerate a few quarters of lacklustre GDP performance. In that case, deficits will never be allowed to contract properly and will become a problem which they might not have been to start with. All I can suggest is that, in their regular interest rate decisions, they should err on the side of caution.

US & EU plan bilateral trade talks

FT:

Diplomats from the US and European Union are laying the groundwork for an unprecedented round of bilateral bargaining in which all of the main transatlantic trade disputes would be put on the table and negotiated in one go.

The talks between the world’s two largest trading blocs would link the resolution of billions of dollars-worth of simmering trade disputes and aim to “clear the decks” with one all-encompassing deal, officials said…

Officials concede the drive for a single round of bilateral trade negotiations is ambitious, fraught with drawbacks and could quickly falter.

UPDATE: Oddly, the WSJ announced the demise of such an ambitious agenda the day before this FT story: “U.S. and European officials who meet for talks today on how to cut barriers to trans-Atlantic trade say they have given up dreaming of a sweeping deal that would unlock billions of dollars in new trade.”

2007 farm bill even worse than 2002

The 2002 farm bill reversed a gradual, albeit slow, trend of liberalizing American agriculture. Many analysts, including myself, hoped that that legislation was an aberration born of particular electoral considerations, and that the 2007 farm bill might return to reform. Unfortunately, Kim Elliott says things are only getting worse:

Senators Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ) introduced a reform-oriented farm bill that no one thinks has a chance. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for in this case is that continued disagreements over who gets what in the farm bill and who pays for it will continue to stall passage, resulting in a short-term extension of the slightly less bad 2002 farm bill.